Discussion in 'Molineux Mix' started by WarstonesWolf, Aug 3, 2018.
you should have bet again at 80 mins lol
you just know the doom merchants on here will have taken the bet.
250/1 now amazing what 2 wins does
Does anyone do football trading? I've been getting into a bit of scalping recently, had some success last season, fine tuned it this year and the profits have been quite good. For example, I like the under 2.5 goals market, I put a lay bet on over 2.5 goals and hope there isn't an early goal, after 10 to 15 mins I then trade out for a small profit. If there is an early goal, I'll then trade out as soon as I can for a small loss.
There's mountains of data out there so quite easy to select games. An example would be Wolves v Leicester, lay 2.5 goals @ 2.6 for £20, once the back odds reaches 3 you have guaranteed a profit of £3 or 15% of your winnings if you let it run until 90mins. Still plenty of risk of course because if there is an early goal you'll probably lose 40-45% of your stake, so you're looking for a win ratio of 4:1 to be in profit.
I started with £50 during the world cup and now have over £600.
12 days ago we were 1,500/1. I kid you not.
Jim Bowen where do you get your information from ?? There’s a guy I listen to on a podcast who does trading on the overs and unders goals but I’ve never really looked into it as been doing match betting.
Most of my accounts are gubbed so am looking at something to make money on.
There's a spreadsheet there that uses poisson distribution to calculate the results, I use that as a rough guide, usually select 30 games over a weekend that I think are likely to have less than 3 goals then I fine tune them down to about 20 by looking at their recent form etc. This site is good for a rough estimation:
SoccerSTATS.com - cookie consent
As you can see from Wolves for example, only 5 goals have been scored in the first 15mins in 22 games, Crystal Palace there's been only 2, Brighton another one with only 4. Those 3 are good ones to consider each week.
Still plenty of risk to it all but I think you can limit the risk with enough research. The key to it all is discipline, get out of the trade as soon as you can, such as if a goal is scored early, leave it 5mins maximum before trading out. I've seen people stay in hoping to cut their loss only for 2 more goals to go in and they lose all their stake, better to lose 40% and move on.
I use Smarkets, they have a 'trade out' button that calculates it for you, on betfair you have to calculate it yourself which took up too much time for me.
Watford v Everton looks tasty today. Bit of a weird grudge match after comments this week from Deeney about kicking the **** out of Everton's players.
Red card anytime is just over 7/2. Card for either team in the first 15 minutes is 4/1, card for Watford in first 15 is 9/1, or 8/1 for Everton.
Watford to win -1 is just over 3/1. Each team at least one card in each half is a very nice 6/1.
Lee Probert is ref, and doesn't mind flashing a yellow early doors if it's looking nasty.
Watford and Scunthorpe double today is around 7/2 as well.
£10 on Skybet triple - Arsenal, Liverpool and Palace all to win @ 5.5, lay the triple on smarkets @ 4.7 for £10.21. If they all win you get £7.23, if they don't you break even.
Got very lucky last night having villa 4/6 at ladbrokes to win or draw pre match
Rolled it over today on Utd 4/6 vs Fulham, so far so good but not taking anything for granted
Contemplating pushing my luck with Ireland in the ruggers who must win even at this stage
Cue the 3-3 but I like 6/4 Brighton v Burnley to be last game shown on MOTD tonight with paddy power
Two tight sides usually with no real star quality or outside fan base interest in the match up
The stuff you can bet on these days boggles the mind
Also worth keeping an eye on Parma tonight, a mad 5/1 at home to Inter. Although last week's comeback against Juventus was a freak result, Parma are a decent team, and Inter are currently awful. Haven't scored in their past three league games, only scored four in past eight in league, knocked out of the cup last week. And Parma beat them in Milan earlier this season.
I will, however, admit that I'm a total sucker for a big price on a home team, and that I have a general dislike for Inter... but, you know.
Does anyone do the guess the 3 correct scores challenge on the Ladbrokes app? Free to enter every week and you get a free £2 bet if you get 1 correct, £5 bet if you get 2 correct and £100 if you get 3. I've hadn't had 3 yet but got 2 correct a few times and 1 quite regular, over the months it all adds up to a decent amount.
Do you have to hold money in account or is it a free hit?
Thanks for the info Jim. Only use the Ladbrokes account for this now. A massive £30.56 over the course of the season so far. Not enough to retire on, but good enough for a freebie. This week I’ve gone;
Brighton 1 - 1 Burnley
Spurs 2 - 1 Leicester
City 3 - 1 Chelsea
No you don't need any money in the account, you can only do it on the app though not on a browser. Also if you log into the app now you should have a £1 free bet waiting to use on the horse racing, they must have given everyone a free bet, only just noticed mine.
I've gone for:
Brighton 1 - 0 Burnley
Spurs 2 - 0 Leicester
City 3 - 1 Chelsea
I saw last week that thepools do one too that's free, you need to get 5 correct scores and you win 25k if no one else gets them all correct. Similar to sky's super 6 but slightly better chance of winning, still virtually no chance but worth a go for free.
Footie5 | Win £25,000 | Free to Play | The Pools
Did you all get free £1 ladbrokes horse bet too today
I’ll take a look at that. Something to keep me ticking over on a night shift.
Yeah, there's a £1 free bet on the horses on coral too if you have an account.
Arsenal look massive at 4/6
If you take them with coral
£10+ on any prem side above odds 1/2 you receive free spin for every goal scored
Good odds indeed for Parma, their better showings have been away from home though i've gone for the draw in that one. Inters next home game is against Sampdoria and they're 11/2, they're better at home but worth keeping an eye on that one too
Batth anytime scorer vs the **** got to be worth a few quid
William Hill has done this offer a few times recently:
If the team you back scores first and goes onto draw or lose they'll payout your bet as a winner up to £50.
It's all explained here how you can make it relatively risk free:
Man Utd v PSG Offer - William Hill | Matched Betting Blog
Not a bad offer, at worst you'll lose £1.50 if your team does go onto win after scoring first, if they don't you'll win £78.
Also Bet365 are offering a free in play bet on the same game to the value of your pre match bet. Max is £50. Bet £50 on Man Utd, lay that off for a small £2 loss then you can either just have a punt with your £50 free bet that has cost you just £2 or lay that off too to guarantee yourself £30 to £35. I'm no fan of in play matched betting due to the contant changing odds but the best time to do it would be at half time when things settle slightly.
Man Utd v PSG Free In-Play Bet
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