This site is supported by the advertisements on it, please disable your AdBlocker so we can continue to provide you with the quality content you expect.

Football betting 18/19 season

Discussion in 'Molineux Mix' started by WarstonesWolf, Aug 3, 2018.

  1. The Fat Bloke

    The Fat Bloke Has a lot to say

    Messages:
    1,167
    Likes Received:
    1,627
    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2017
    you should have bet again at 80 mins lol
     
    Ewok vs Wolf likes this.
  2. The Fat Bloke

    The Fat Bloke Has a lot to say

    Messages:
    1,167
    Likes Received:
    1,627
    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2017
    you just know the doom merchants on here will have taken the bet.
     
  3. WarstonesWolf

    WarstonesWolf Just doesn't shut up

    Messages:
    8,261
    Likes Received:
    2,358
    Joined:
    Sep 2, 2013
    250/1 now amazing what 2 wins does
     
    brightside likes this.
  4. Jim Bowen

    Jim Bowen Just doesn't shut up

    Messages:
    9,518
    Likes Received:
    9,018
    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2005
    Does anyone do football trading? I've been getting into a bit of scalping recently, had some success last season, fine tuned it this year and the profits have been quite good. For example, I like the under 2.5 goals market, I put a lay bet on over 2.5 goals and hope there isn't an early goal, after 10 to 15 mins I then trade out for a small profit. If there is an early goal, I'll then trade out as soon as I can for a small loss.

    There's mountains of data out there so quite easy to select games. An example would be Wolves v Leicester, lay 2.5 goals @ 2.6 for £20, once the back odds reaches 3 you have guaranteed a profit of £3 or 15% of your winnings if you let it run until 90mins. Still plenty of risk of course because if there is an early goal you'll probably lose 40-45% of your stake, so you're looking for a win ratio of 4:1 to be in profit.

    I started with £50 during the world cup and now have over £600.
     
  5. Burton Wolf

    Burton Wolf Just doesn't shut up

    Messages:
    13,868
    Likes Received:
    2,467
    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2010
    12 days ago we were 1,500/1. I kid you not.
     
    WarstonesWolf likes this.
  6. Postiewolf77

    Postiewolf77 Newbie

    Messages:
    4
    Likes Received:
    1
    Joined:
    Apr 18, 2018
    Jim Bowen where do you get your information from ?? There’s a guy I listen to on a podcast who does trading on the overs and unders goals but I’ve never really looked into it as been doing match betting.

    Most of my accounts are gubbed so am looking at something to make money on.
     
  7. Jim Bowen

    Jim Bowen Just doesn't shut up

    Messages:
    9,518
    Likes Received:
    9,018
    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2005
    https://www.thatstat.co.uk/database-download

    There's a spreadsheet there that uses poisson distribution to calculate the results, I use that as a rough guide, usually select 30 games over a weekend that I think are likely to have less than 3 goals then I fine tune them down to about 20 by looking at their recent form etc. This site is good for a rough estimation:

    SoccerSTATS.com - cookie consent

    As you can see from Wolves for example, only 5 goals have been scored in the first 15mins in 22 games, Crystal Palace there's been only 2, Brighton another one with only 4. Those 3 are good ones to consider each week.

    Still plenty of risk to it all but I think you can limit the risk with enough research. The key to it all is discipline, get out of the trade as soon as you can, such as if a goal is scored early, leave it 5mins maximum before trading out. I've seen people stay in hoping to cut their loss only for 2 more goals to go in and they lose all their stake, better to lose 40% and move on.

    I use Smarkets, they have a 'trade out' button that calculates it for you, on betfair you have to calculate it yourself which took up too much time for me.
     
  8. The Wolf In The North

    The Wolf In The North Groupie

    Messages:
    251
    Likes Received:
    192
    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2016
    Watford v Everton looks tasty today. Bit of a weird grudge match after comments this week from Deeney about kicking the **** out of Everton's players.

    Red card anytime is just over 7/2. Card for either team in the first 15 minutes is 4/1, card for Watford in first 15 is 9/1, or 8/1 for Everton.

    Watford to win -1 is just over 3/1. Each team at least one card in each half is a very nice 6/1.

    Lee Probert is ref, and doesn't mind flashing a yellow early doors if it's looking nasty.

    Watford and Scunthorpe double today is around 7/2 as well.
     
    Professional and we8wba like this.
  9. Jim Bowen

    Jim Bowen Just doesn't shut up

    Messages:
    9,518
    Likes Received:
    9,018
    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2005
    £10 on Skybet triple - Arsenal, Liverpool and Palace all to win @ 5.5, lay the triple on smarkets @ 4.7 for £10.21. If they all win you get £7.23, if they don't you break even.
     
    we8wba likes this.
  10. we8wba

    we8wba Just doesn't shut up

    Messages:
    10,767
    Likes Received:
    3,948
    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2010
    Got very lucky last night having villa 4/6 at ladbrokes to win or draw pre match

    Rolled it over today on Utd 4/6 vs Fulham, so far so good but not taking anything for granted

    Contemplating pushing my luck with Ireland in the ruggers who must win even at this stage
     
  11. we8wba

    we8wba Just doesn't shut up

    Messages:
    10,767
    Likes Received:
    3,948
    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2010
    Cue the 3-3 but I like 6/4 Brighton v Burnley to be last game shown on MOTD tonight with paddy power

    Two tight sides usually with no real star quality or outside fan base interest in the match up
     
  12. The Wolf In The North

    The Wolf In The North Groupie

    Messages:
    251
    Likes Received:
    192
    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2016
    :D The stuff you can bet on these days boggles the mind
     
    cookey and we8wba like this.
  13. The Wolf In The North

    The Wolf In The North Groupie

    Messages:
    251
    Likes Received:
    192
    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2016
    Also worth keeping an eye on Parma tonight, a mad 5/1 at home to Inter. Although last week's comeback against Juventus was a freak result, Parma are a decent team, and Inter are currently awful. Haven't scored in their past three league games, only scored four in past eight in league, knocked out of the cup last week. And Parma beat them in Milan earlier this season.

    I will, however, admit that I'm a total sucker for a big price on a home team, and that I have a general dislike for Inter... but, you know. :p
     
    Ewok vs Wolf and WickedWolfie like this.
  14. Jim Bowen

    Jim Bowen Just doesn't shut up

    Messages:
    9,518
    Likes Received:
    9,018
    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2005
    Does anyone do the guess the 3 correct scores challenge on the Ladbrokes app? Free to enter every week and you get a free £2 bet if you get 1 correct, £5 bet if you get 2 correct and £100 if you get 3. I've hadn't had 3 yet but got 2 correct a few times and 1 quite regular, over the months it all adds up to a decent amount.
     
  15. Yamalroite

    Yamalroite Senior Member

    Messages:
    438
    Likes Received:
    659
    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2018
    Do you have to hold money in account or is it a free hit?
     
  16. Alienwolf

    Alienwolf Groupie

    Messages:
    346
    Likes Received:
    244
    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2013
    Thanks for the info Jim. Only use the Ladbrokes account for this now. A massive £30.56 over the course of the season so far. Not enough to retire on, but good enough for a freebie. This week I’ve gone;
    Brighton 1 - 1 Burnley
    Spurs 2 - 1 Leicester
    City 3 - 1 Chelsea
     
    Jim Bowen likes this.
  17. Jim Bowen

    Jim Bowen Just doesn't shut up

    Messages:
    9,518
    Likes Received:
    9,018
    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2005
    No you don't need any money in the account, you can only do it on the app though not on a browser. Also if you log into the app now you should have a £1 free bet waiting to use on the horse racing, they must have given everyone a free bet, only just noticed mine.
     
    Yamalroite likes this.
  18. Jim Bowen

    Jim Bowen Just doesn't shut up

    Messages:
    9,518
    Likes Received:
    9,018
    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2005
    I've gone for:

    Brighton 1 - 0 Burnley
    Spurs 2 - 0 Leicester
    City 3 - 1 Chelsea

    I saw last week that thepools do one too that's free, you need to get 5 correct scores and you win 25k if no one else gets them all correct. Similar to sky's super 6 but slightly better chance of winning, still virtually no chance but worth a go for free.

    Footie5 | Win £25,000 | Free to Play | The Pools
     
  19. we8wba

    we8wba Just doesn't shut up

    Messages:
    10,767
    Likes Received:
    3,948
    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2010
    Did you all get free £1 ladbrokes horse bet too today
     
  20. Alienwolf

    Alienwolf Groupie

    Messages:
    346
    Likes Received:
    244
    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2013
    I’ll take a look at that. Something to keep me ticking over on a night shift.
     
    Jim Bowen likes this.
  21. Jim Bowen

    Jim Bowen Just doesn't shut up

    Messages:
    9,518
    Likes Received:
    9,018
    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2005
    Yeah, there's a £1 free bet on the horses on coral too if you have an account.
     
    we8wba likes this.
  22. brightside

    brightside Just doesn't shut up

    Messages:
    9,851
    Likes Received:
    10,922
    Joined:
    Dec 23, 2015
    Arsenal look massive at 4/6
     
  23. we8wba

    we8wba Just doesn't shut up

    Messages:
    10,767
    Likes Received:
    3,948
    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2010
    If you take them with coral

    £10+ on any prem side above odds 1/2 you receive free spin for every goal scored
     
    brightside likes this.
  24. Ewok vs Wolf

    Ewok vs Wolf Just doesn't shut up

    Messages:
    5,163
    Likes Received:
    2,546
    Joined:
    May 2, 2012
    Good odds indeed for Parma, their better showings have been away from home though i've gone for the draw in that one. Inters next home game is against Sampdoria and they're 11/2, they're better at home but worth keeping an eye on that one too
     
    The Wolf In The North likes this.
  25. Yamalroite

    Yamalroite Senior Member

    Messages:
    438
    Likes Received:
    659
    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2018
    Batth anytime scorer vs the **** got to be worth a few quid
     
  26. Jim Bowen

    Jim Bowen Just doesn't shut up

    Messages:
    9,518
    Likes Received:
    9,018
    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2005
    William Hill has done this offer a few times recently:

    https://promotions.williamhill.com/offer/golden-goal-2019

    If the team you back scores first and goes onto draw or lose they'll payout your bet as a winner up to £50.

    It's all explained here how you can make it relatively risk free:

    Man Utd v PSG Offer - William Hill | Matched Betting Blog

    Not a bad offer, at worst you'll lose £1.50 if your team does go onto win after scoring first, if they don't you'll win £78.

    Also Bet365 are offering a free in play bet on the same game to the value of your pre match bet. Max is £50. Bet £50 on Man Utd, lay that off for a small £2 loss then you can either just have a punt with your £50 free bet that has cost you just £2 or lay that off too to guarantee yourself £30 to £35. I'm no fan of in play matched betting due to the contant changing odds but the best time to do it would be at half time when things settle slightly.

    Man Utd v PSG Free In-Play Bet
     

Share This Page